Thanksgiving dinner costs by the numbers reveal what's cheaper, what's still pricey

After several years of rising food prices, Americans are finally getting a break at the Thanksgiving table, mainly due to falling turkey costs.

The average cost of a traditional feast for a holiday gathering has dropped this year, according to new data from Wells Fargo and the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), with turkey, dinner rolls and stuffing leading the decline. While the cost of some sides is still eating into budgets, the overall cost of a traditional meal is down about 3% to 6%.

Wells Fargo estimates that a dinner for 10 costs between $80 and $95, depending on whether shoppers choose store or national brands. The AFBF pegs the average nationwide cost lower at $55.18, or about $5.52 per person, down 5% from last year, but still roughly 13% higher than before the pandemic.

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The cost of a standard meal was lowest in the South at $50.01, followed by the Midwest at $54.38, the Northeast at $60.82 and the West at $61.75, the organization found.

The relief is due to easing supply chain pressures and strong competition among grocers, Stephanie Carls, a Texas-based retail insights expert for RetailMeNot, told Fox News Digital. 

"Discounting is doing a lot of the heavy lifting this year," Carls added. "Many retailers are leaning even more on their private-label lines because they allow them to offer stronger value without sacrificing margins." 

For shoppers, that means more opportunities to save without compromising quality, she said.

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"Retailers, including BJ's Wholesale Club and H-E-B, know budgets are tight, so many are offering free turkey promotions and holiday meal bundles to help families host without overspending," Carls said. "Those competitive discounts are playing a big role in pulling average meal costs down this season."

Walmart, Lidl, Aldi and Target, meanwhile, have announced their most affordable Thanksgiving dinners in years, feeding four to 10 people for roughly $3.60 to $5 per person, according to a White House news release.

Shoppers will likely notice that national brand turkey prices dropped the most. The AFBF found the average price of a 16-pound frozen turkey dropped 16% to $21.50 from last year.

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"This year's decline is driven by supply, as demand stays roughly the same year to year," Brandon Parsons, an economist at Pepperdine University's Graziadio Business School in California, told Fox News Digital. "Turkey production has increased, and the avian flu outbreak has subsided, allowing the supply of turkey to recover."

This year, turkey makes up a smaller share of the Thanksgiving meal cost than usual - just 39% of the total dinner price, the lowest portion in 25 years.

Other Thanksgiving staples also have also seen price drops, including dinner rolls, down 22% to about $3.56 per dozen. Stuffing, gravy and cranberries are all down roughly 3% to 4% from last year, according to Wells Fargo.

Not everything is cheaper, though, including produce and dairy products. 

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"While turkey and wheat products have benefited from improved production conditions leading to more supply and declining input costs, other produce categories are exposed to supply shocks," Parsons said.

Sweet potatoes are up 37% to $4 for a 3-pound bag, while fresh vegetable trays have surged 61% and carrots and celery are up to $1.36 a pound, according to the AFBF. 

Hurricane damage in North Carolina, farm labor shortages and typical produce volatility all contributed to higher prices, also according to the same source.

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"Mississippi, one of the country's top sweet potato producers, went more than 70 days without rain this summer, resulting in smaller-than-average roots and lower yields per acre," said Francisco Martin-Rayo, co-founder and CEO of Helios AI, which uses artificial intelligence to analyze agricultural and market data.

"The inflation baked into side dishes remains a real pressure point for U.S. households," Martin-Rayo said, noting that processors and packers will particularly feel the squeeze.

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When it comes to drinks, beer prices are up about 3%, while wine prices are flat and soft drinks show mixed results, with 12-ounce cans down 3% but 2-liter containers up 7%.

Even with price drops, many Americans are still trimming costs by hosting smaller gatherings, skipping extras and mixing homemade with store-bought dishes, according to NIQ retail data.

"Lower turkey prices reflect improved supply and competitive holiday promotions, but they do not necessarily mean food inflation is behind us," Carls said. "Seasonal discounting can create temporary relief, so it is important to look beyond a single item to understand the bigger inflation picture."